It dawned on me that not everyone has a perspective about how hard what I'm trying to do actually is so I thought I would give some perspective to my situation.
I am aiming for a 100% return on my money in one year. If I were to do this strictly through the market, it will take a small miracle or some plain dumb luck. In a good year, the overall market might return anywhere from 12% to 20%. On $20,000, a GREAT return would be $4,000, leaving me $16,000 short of my goal. Over several years, it is next to impossible to average a return this high, so in reality it would take anywhere between seven or eight years for most good stock pickers to double their money. I'm aiming to do it in one year. To make the situation worse, I believe the market is in for a correction. It has been very volatile as of late, and I think it has more to go on the downside than on the upside. This means I have to be very shrewed when it comes to picking stocks, or I have to take a lot of risk by shorting stocks, which I'm not inclined to do.
Now, I'm going to try other methods as well. I'm hoping that somehow I can find creative ways to make money other than picking great stocks but it is going to be very hard. That's why I started this site, to kind of get me some ideas and follow my own thoughts on what it will take to create a viable model for making money. It's easy to do research and come up with ideas, it is much harder to actually go and do something about it.
I fear the market will be stuck in a downward slope for the next 4 years. As foreclosure rates continue to increase, consumer spending power will correspondingly shrink.ReplyDelete
You have quite a challenge; however nothing is impossible.... I sure hope you make it, because when you do, I'll give you $20,000 to double for me.
Hopefully you learn enough from what I do to be able to double your money on your own.ReplyDelete
That's what I'm hoping for ;)ReplyDelete
Now that I think about it... there must be a pocket of companies who would benefit from the rising foreclosures. I mean companies whose business model is to counter such events - reinsurance or stop loss insurance for the struggling mortgage lenders (like Countrywide Home Loans). Have you done any research on those companies?ReplyDelete
[...] Journey talks about why he believes it is so hard to double his money in one year! In his journey, I say good [...]ReplyDelete
success on your journey, journey::-) my goals are not that high, but i agree with the difficulty. great that you are posting your progress. part of succeeding i feel is using peer groups, real goals and sharing as well as receiving support. being open to change course when GOOD support is given. go for it!ReplyDelete
Thanks for the encouragement. I agree, I'm glad that I'm sharing my goals and receiving support from those who are reading my blog.ReplyDelete
Liz: good call, undertakers profits are soaring, morbid that may be, the babyboomers and their parents are becoming "ripe". Personally, i'm a gold bug and although volatile, it has done very well for me. I am not a hold kind of trader so some of my wins could have been more, but my losses have also been at a minimum. success.ReplyDelete