Tuesday, June 9, 2009

Oil Above $70 ...

This can't be good.  Oil has been on a tear from its lows in the mid thirties.  Some would argue that this is a sign that the economy will turn around because people are showing the belief that there will be demand for oil as the economy grows.

But I look at it from the other angle.  I, as a consumer, have a couple of problems.

  • I might have lost my job

  • I probably have huge credit card debt

  • I probably have less credit because a few cards have probably been closed

  • I probably have missed a few mortgage payments

  • My retirement savings have been killed even factoring in this 35% run in the last three months

  • I am paying $3 a gallon for gas

That last one is just adding insult to injury. At least with a bad economy, I might be able to spend less on gas than I was last year. But with oil continuing to be strong with no sign of weakness in sight, I have to wonder how strong the rebound will be in our economy.

That being said, I think the energy names look attractive here.  Most of those stocks have not run up as much as Oil have and they do not have $70 oil priced in.  Names like Exxon Mobile, Conoco Phillips as well as drillers like Schlumberger and Petroleo Brasileiro look attractive to me.  Why worry about rising gas prices?  Might as well just make money off of it.

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