Monday, April 20, 2009

Down Baby Down

The market moved down over 3% today.  Is it wrong of me that I'm hoping it continues on its way down?

I went short the market by buying a leveraged short ETF (DXD).  The thing is, I'm really not all that bearish in the market from here.  I have been saying for months that we are likely to be trading in a range for the next several years.  We have been up over the last six weeks, up almost 30%, and we are likely to come back down.  I'm just trading here and hedging my long positions in case we get a market correction.

I am not sure we will retest the lows from before, we may have put in a bottom, but at the same time I don't think we are anywhere near a bull market.  The movement we are seeing in this market is being created by traders, not investors.  Most of your average Americans have no interest in getting into this market.  I know of several people pulling back on their 401K contributions and people thinking this is just a bad time to invest.  Forget the fact that they are thinking wrongly here, there is just not enough interest by your average american to keep this rally going.


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