Thursday, April 2, 2009
Time to Buy?
I should just leave it at that. The market has had a fantastic up spike in the last few week. The market hit its lows in mid March and then rallied strong after that. Does that mean you should buy? Should you get in before it is too late? I should just remind people that a similar market rally happened at the end of December through the beginning of the year and we quickly came back down to a new fresh low.
The jobs number tomorrow is not going to be pretty but I do not necessarily think that it will drive the market lower. I think that the market is in the middle of a bear market rally. I think it will run up, and could even get to 900, in just a matter of a few days. But I really think there are some real problems we are not quite through yet and it is tough to believe that we will suddenly past 1000 anytime soon.
I did buy a smal position in a Chinese ETF (FXI) but I did not start throwing my cash into the market. I will wait to buy on the market dips. I think we may be consolidating around a bottom, so I do not think we will blow past the March lows, but I have no desire to go chase the stocks into this rally.
Take your time and have patience. Sell any stocks you have some solid profits in (you should have been buying as the market went down) and sit and wait for the market to retreat.