Tuesday, December 30, 2008

2009 Predictions

Decided to put my predictions down for 2009.  Here is what I think will happen in the next year

  • GM equity will go to Zero.  The equity is worth nothing because the debt is worth nothing.  Sooner or later this is going to have to be reflected in the stock price.

  • The recession will be significant and it will hurt.  Unemployment will reach 10%.

  • Housing will continue to tumble.  There will be double digit declines in California.

  • The market will go higher at first, dip again, and remain flat or slightly down for the year.  The rally everyone is waiting for just is not going to happen.

  • We will not see significant inflation yet (but we will in 2010)

  • The United States will, believe it or not, do better then the world markets

  • Commodity prices will fall at the beginning of the year.  Oil will drop to below $30.  It will not crater however and there will be a rebound in commodities

  • The United States will actually have a positive savings rate!  Sounds unlikely but I do not think there is any other choice at this point.

  • One of the major retailers, one that is not currently in trouble, is going to declare bankruptcy.  Macy's, Nordstrom, Saks, Sears, etc.

Let's see how many of these come true in the coming year.  How about you?  What do you think the next year holds for us?

1 comment:

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