Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Fed Cuts - Big Deal

I hate the Fed now.  It is ridiculous to think that a group of men think they are capable of picking an appropriate interest rate.  I could go on and on about all the things I hate about this, but it would just end up making me more upset.

I played this pretty well.  I followed the mantra of "buy on the rumor, sell on the news".  It was widely rumored that the fed would cut the interest rate.  I was sure the fed wouldn't disappoint and do the wrong thing.  I was still partially in my long position in the S&P, so I was looking for the right time to get out.  I decided the best time would be just a few minutes before the Fed announced because I figured there was probably only downside after the cut was actually announced since it was so widely believed that it would happen.

Now I would love to get short the market again.  I fully expect another leg down despite what the Fed is trying to do.  I really want to start looking at the banks right about now.  Seriously, as bad as these may look right now, the government is going out of its way to make sure banks are really profitable going forward.  They are literally giving them money, making money cheap for them to borrow, and essentially backstopping them to make sure they don't go bankrupt.  When you add the fact that competition will be much less going forward, because so many banks are getting taken out, and you have it set up to be a great year next year for banks.


  1. Maybe they have a very powerful ouija board.

  2. Or one of those black 8 balls...

  3. Whatever they're using is not working. We really need new blood at the Fed. If the good old boys keeping recruiting each other, we're doomed.