Double Journey

I was talking to a coworker today about having a land-line.  Coincidentally, there is an article today on MSN wondering what is killing the land-line.

The article is right, the lines seem to be drawn on age boundaries.  Most of my coworkers who are younger don’t ever bother with a land-line.  All they need is their cellphone.  Most of the older people in the office have one, but admit that they hardly if ever use it becasue of their cell phone.  Unfortunatley, I fall into the latter category, although not by choice.  I do have a land-line but I have it because my girlfriend uses it for work (she works from home and needs to be on a lot of conference calls).  But, like most people my age, I really don’t have any need for one.

If this isn’t a reason to short stocks of telecom companies which only have land-line based businesses (Qwest comes to mind) I don’t know what is.  Even those companies like AT&T and Verizon probably face pretty uncertain futures given the commodity business cell phone carriers provide.  I myself have, in the past eight years, used all the major providers at one time or another.  I did it because it was easy to switch (even easier now that there is number portability) and I had no reason to pick one over the other.

What will change even more in the future will be that most won’t even need a phone.  Most people are just going to need something that can send a text message.  While people my age may or may not use the feature very much, just go younger by about five years and it is pretty much the only form of communication used.  The voice functionality of cell phones will be like the camera today.  It will be on every phone, but few people will actually use that functionality.

Do you have a land-line?  If so why?

I decided to pull the trigger on the Panasonic 50PZ800u and have discovered one of the better under-publicized features of Amazon, their 30 day price guarantee. One of the anxieties of buying any big ticket electronic is that prices are always dropping and you just know it is going to drop the minute after you make your purchase. There wasn’t a more perfect example of this than this. More on that in a minute.

On Friday, Amazon showed that it had my TV in stock. Funny enough, they delayed the “In Stock” date yet again the day after my original post about Amazon teasing me. So I had to wait another day before I felt comfortable ordering it. I got in on Friday morning to see that they were showing the item in stock, so I decided to go through with the purchase and just order it. I wanted to get the TV as soon as possible since the NBA finals will be starting on Thursday, and the Lakers are in it. It is going to be a classic match up between Los Angeles and Boston so I wanted to catch as much of it as I could on the new TV.

I ordered the TV at about 10:00 a.m. PST. The price of the TV when I ordered it was $2368.86. I felt fairly comfortable with the price and truth be told I would have been happy to pay that amount. But wouldn’t you know it. I obsessively checked the status of my order at noon and noticed that the price had dropped more than $50 to $2313.96. I could only laugh as I found the whole thing pretty amusing. You expect the price to drop sometime after you buy it, and that’s just life. There is no point in always holding out for a lower price because you will never get what you want. But dropping by $50 just two hours after you have bought it? Now that’s just irony.

Now I have read that Amazon has some pretty sophisticated albeit strange pricing algorithms. It could very well be that my purchasing of the TV actually caused the price of the item to go down. As the margins on these TVs are pretty good, and I’m sure they don’t sell them in as much quantity as say a DVD, it is very likely that my actions had an affect on the price, and therefore the price dropped. Of course this would fly in the face of traditional supply-and-demand principles, but who am I to tell them not to give consumers a better deal?

However, Amazon has a 30 day price guarantee that is good until 30 days after the item is shipped (my item hasn’t even shipped yet so I think I’m getting an even longer window). All you have to do is go to the customer service screen which should list all your recent orders. You should be able to click on a button to e-mail customer service. If you e-mail them with the price that you saw listed on Amazon, they will refund you the difference with a credit to your credit card.

But it gets better. You can do this as often as you like in your 30 day window. Quite literally, another 3 hours later, the price dropped yet again to $2286.86, a total of $82 less than my original purchase price. I e-mailed them again to get the new price difference and yet again they credited me the money.

Wait, it still gets better. There is absolutely no hassle about it. It really couldn’t be any easier or faster. Each time I got a pretty standard response saying they looked at it, and they agreed they had it at a lower price, and they would credit my credit card the amount. And they did this all within a few hours after my inquiry (even though today is a Saturday).

So far, so good. Now all I need is for the TV to show up …

I’ve debated a long time over what type of TV to get. As I said in an earlier post about my which HDTV I want to get, I’ve gone back and forth. For a long time, I was sold on a Sony SXRD television. It has great picture quality and is more affordable than the flat panels at the very large screen sizes. As I never plan on hanging my TV, it was a logical choice.

But because Sony decided to move away from that technology I looked elsewhere. The obvious choice was LCD. LCDs are much more popular than Plasma TVs. I’ll be the first to say the probably look better in the store because they are much brighter than your general plasmas and thus a person’s eye is drawn to them. They also tend to be lighter (and thus easier to hang) and use less energy. But I tend to think those are secondary considerations for most people. For a long time, they were the only choice under 42″. Most people would buy those as most people are not in the market for a TV bigger than that.

For me, it came down to a few things. The most important thing by far was how good the picture looked to me. Like most, I was drawn to those big bright screens at my local Best Buy. But after watching a few LCDs in dark rooms, I realized there is such a thing as too bright. So I went back to try and understand what makes a good picture. I like deep saturated colors and great detail. In my opinion, LCDs win in the sharpness department, but Plasmas win in the color and detail department. In the end it came down to two things for me.

• Black Levels - By the very nature of LCD technology, they can’t get as deep a black as Plasmas. This is by far the most important thing when it comes to picture quality. Think of it as the canvas by which all other colors must be painted. You want to have as clean of a canvas as you possibly can get. Most LCDs are a dark gray when the screen is completely black and it really bothers me. New LCDs are getting very close, and it is one reason I have seriously considered getting one, but they still don’t beat the best of the plasmas.
• Motion - This one too is getting close, but its not quite close enough. The main thing I watch is sports and I can see the motion blur that is inherent in LCD technology. Not everyone is sensitive to it, but I am, and it distracts me when I’m trying to watch the Lakers.

There were some other things that favored one over the other. Price was somewhat of a consideration, but only a small one. LCDs are slightly more expensive at this size. But I’m considering two TVs, the Panasonic 50PZ800U I discussed before and the Samsung LN52A650. The price is a wash between the two TVs so it doesn’t really factor.

I still haven’t bought the TV yet, so it isn’t certain that I will go with the plasma. However, I did finally see the Panasonic 50PZ800U first hand in the store today. More on that later …

I am obsessed with my imminent HDTV purchase. I find myself constantly looking for information on the TV I think I will buy, the new Panasonic 50PZ800U. It’s been a long road. I’ve been thinking about getting an HDTV for over five years, and it has never happened.

But now I’m pretty certain. The big problem is that there were just too many choices. Normally, choice is a good thing. But most people only want the illusion of choice. They really want three or four choices, anything more than that and people face decision paralysis.

So how did I come to the decision on the TV I want to buy? Here was my thought process

DLP, LCD, or Plasma? - I originally was going to buy the 60″ Sony SXRD but Sony decided to stop making them, so I started looking around for another solution. So the choice came down to an LCD or Plasma. I could go on, and I think I will in another post, about why I chose Plasma. But in the end I thought it was the best choice for me given the type of watching I do which is mainly sports.

Which brand to Buy? - There are so many to choose from. Vizio, Samsung, Panasonic, and Pioneer to name a few. Pioneer supposedly has amazing TVs in their Kuro line, but they are just too expensive for too small of a difference. Vizio is too low on the other side of the scale. So it comes down to Samsung or Panasonic. Panasonic is a little bit better reputation wise, but the Samsung Plasmas, PN50A550 and PN50A650, look to be strong competition. I may eventually swing over to the Samsung side before I buy.

How Much to Spend? - I’ll be honest, this wasn’t that important. I just wanted the best TV for the best value. I wanted something I would be happy with for ten years. Whatever price point that was was going to be how much I spent.

Which Model to Buy ? - A couple of problems here. Panasonic was coming out with new 2008 models as I was making my decision. Did I wait or buy the older models which were going on sale. In the end, I decided to wait. Might as well get the latest and greatest technology considering my criteria for keeping it for ten years. Next, I had to choose between the 85 model and the 800. I’m still out on this one. The 800 supposedly is a better picture, better sound, but I’m not so sure it is worth the extra $500. I’ve been waiting to see, but haven’t been able to find one yet.

So I find myself constantly looking for information about this set and trying to find places which have a good deal. In the end, I’m sure it won’t make that much of a difference, but just given my personality, I just want to make sure I’m very happy with my choice.

How about you? Do you have an HDTV? If so what type and you happy with it? Any advice for a first time buyer?

I got a Samsung Blackjack 2 a few weeks ago, and I have to say I like it so far.  Now I have to say one thing up front, I’ve never really had a “smart phone”.  I’ve always used my phone to make phone calls.  A novel idea I know.  But I decided to get a phone that would allow me to check my work e-mail where I was, so I got this phone.

I had heard bad things about the Blackjack 1.  But to be honest, I just didn’t care what I got.  I figured it was all the same so long as I could check my mail.  Despite being a technology geek, and working at a telecom company, I’ve just never really been into phones.  So I just ordered whatever was convenient and this is what I got.

I have to say, I like it a lot.  The screen is bright, it’s slim, and it does what I need it to do which is make calls, check mail, and occasionally look something up on the internet.  It is 3G capable, which means internet browsing is fast, and I like the display and keypad just fine.  Of course like anything it does have its drawbacks.  First off, navigating through this thing was not intuitive.  Now that I got it down, I can get through, but for a first time user, Windows Mobile 6 is not the most user friendly thing around.  I know for a fact that Microsoft is starting to divert a lot of resources over in that division, so hopefully this will improve over time.

Also, the battery life is not so great.  The 3G really sucks the life out of the battery, so if you plan on doing more than just the occasional  search, be ready to find a plug fast.  That’s the other thing I don’t like about it.  It has a proprietary plug  for out output and input.  So despite the fact that it can play music, you are going to have to buy Samsung’s own headphones.

Overall a thumbs up.  But then again, I have nothing to compare it to.

So today, Toshiba announced that it was cutting the price of its players even further. The players will start for $149.99 and work its way up to $300. Throw in the fact that you can get 10 free movies with a purchase, and you are looking at a fairly good deal.

That being said, the HD-DVD camp is a little late to the game. With the defection of Warner Brothers from the HD-DVD fold, there isn’t much that the HD-DVD camp can do to actually save their format. You see, content is king. People won’t buy a player because it is cool new technology and it is cheap. They want to be able to play their favorite movies. I always believed that the first player to $100 was going to win, but that was before all the content got taken away from one of the formats.

In the end, I still think this race is a big yawn. I write about it only because I’m oddly curious about the battle going on from a geek’s perspective.

By the way, what type of lame ass reporting do they have over at Crave? In one of their articles, they suggested that Microsoft might want to look into buying a movie studio. For what possible reason would Microsoft do this? Seriously, it may be the lamest idea I have ever heard and quite frankly it is a little bit of irresponsible journalism. First, Microsoft is not in the movie making business. It is in a lot of businesses, but none of them are even close to actually producing a movie. Second, HD-DVD is a very very small part of what Microsoft does. There is no way that Microsoft, no matter how much cash it has, would make such a ludicrous transaction. As a shareholder, I would instantly sell my remaining shares if it ever happened.

I guess any old person can post whatever they want, no credentials required. Then again, I guess I do the same thing

Figured I would follow up on my original post about trying to pick a winner between HD DVD and BluRay now that the industry is starting to pick sides. Warner Brothers announced that they would only distribute their movies on BluRay. Warner Brothers is the largest distributors of movies there is and this puts the momentum squarely behind the BluRay camp. This means that Sony, Disney, MGM, Fox, and LionsGate all release on only BluRay. These are the heavy hitters when it comes to movies, and

Many believe that when there finally is one format chosen, that this will move consumers away from the sidelines. However, I don’t think this “confusion” on the consumers part is really what is causing the delayed adoption of the next generation DVD format. However, I think this is bogus. I think adoption has been delayed because people are indifferent. While no doubt movies look better, most Americans aren’t going to waste buying a player that cost 5x more than a similar DVD player and disc that carry a 25% premium.

Most people I know think DVDs look just fine on their TVs, even their HDTVs.

So that means the winner is officially … downloaded movies. Seriously, I wonder if anybody really cares about the next generation DVD format. I certainly don’t despite Rick’s urging for me to get a BluRay player and HDTV. While DVDs were a leap ahead from VHS in terms of quality and form factor, I don’t see the same thing here. For god sake, the disc look exactly the same! The next leap is a form factor of nothing. I don’t have to carry it around or get it, it comes to me.

So there you have it. I don’t really care that BluRay seems to have brought the hammer to the HD DVD camp, because in the end, both formats are going to be irrelevant.

This blog post is completely off topic, but I’m going to do that every once in a while just to keep things interesting.

I talk a lot about this subject with Rick, who always is raving about how great these next generation disc look on his awesome TV. I of course have stayed out of the fray because I still have my ten year old TV so it won’t really matter if I pick up a next-generation player. But I follow the war with some interest only because I find these types of battles to be interesting.

As I shopped around this Black Weekend, one of the things I did look for was to see what types of deals were available for either type of player. I saw multiple places with a Toshiba HD DVD player for $199. Amazon has it for even less. I didn’t see a Blu-Ray player for less than $399. There were a few of those, along with of course the PS3, which can act as a Blu Ray player itself, and at this point is the best value if you are going to go down this path.

Despite the fact that I’m a bonafide geek, I am also extremely careful with my money (wouldn’t know it from what I’m doing here would you?). I am a “mainstream” consumer in the sense that I prefer to let technology come way down in price before I buy it. I generally don’t see a reason to be on the cutting-edge, because the premium you pay is so much greater than the actual benefit you receive from the new technology. No doubt that these next-generation formats look great, but when I can buy a DVD player for $20, and the quality look absolutely fine, am I really going to pay 8x or 16x more money? Am I really going to repurchase an entire DVD collection I spent years building? Doubtful.

Many tout that the Blu-Ray technology is better. It might also have the better stable of movies with all the Sony and Disney pictures exclusively on Blu-Ray. But in the end, it’s about price, it’s always about price. I’ve stated my position. The first format to break the $100 mark for a widely-available player wins. At the price, people stop trying to save up for the purchase, and just go buy it. It becomes a mainstream purchase. If I have a choice between a traditional DVD player at $70 (which is what I spent on my player) or a newer technology at $100, then I would likely choose the newer one, just to future proof myself.

Anecdotally, the Circuit City I went to was sold out of their Toshiba HD DVD players, but had plenty of the Blu Ray players. Best Buy had plenty of both.

So what do you think? Have you picked sides in the war yet and why? Or are you like me, just waiting it out until someone makes it cheap enough to be worthwhile?