Double Journey

I keep hearing ideas about a gas tax holiday. Every time I hear it, it makes me shake my head at the idiots we have to choose for our politicians. Simply put, this will never work.

First off, let’s talk about the size of the break. For those that don’t know. The federal gas tax is $0.18. With gas at $4.00 a gallon (and rising) this amount to about 4.5% break. Not shabby but not great. Most time lines call for a three month hiatus. Now I’m a pretty typical driver and I drive a typical car. I fill up on gas about once a week. Maybe 5 times a month. When I fill up, I put about 14 gallons of gas in my car. Doing the math

(14 Gallons*$0.18/gallon) * 5 * 3 months = $37.80

So this “big break” saves me a total of about $38. With gas at $4.00/gallon this saves me a little over a half a tank of gas over 3 months. Great!

But that isn’t why this is stupid. Simply put, there is no way that the end user will ever see the full benefit of this holiday. Econ 101 tells you that the incidence of the tax IS NOT the same as who pays the tax. Simply put, just because you pay the tax doesn’t mean you are the one who is really bearing the burden. Let’s say the repeal the tax. Should you expect an immediate $0.18 drop in gas prices? A “yes” answer assumes that the consumer bears all the burden of the tax, but that is rarely if ever true. Most likely, the gas station owners also bear a burden of the tax. In which case, the price of gas will fall even less. It may very well be the case that gas station owners bear ALL of the burden of the tax, in which case, gas prices won’t fall at all and only station owners will actually profit.

I literally learned this in my Econ 101 class so I’m not sure why our highest politicians don’t quite get this.

I’m kind of torn about the idea of tax rebate checks, and not just because I probably won’t be getting one.

Anything that gives less money to the government and more money to the people, I’m all for. I already think that the government is too big, and philosophically believe that people should keep more of their own money and give less to government.

That being said, I’m also no idiot. Without equal spending cuts somewhere, less tax dollars for the government simply means bigger deficits in the future. It is either pay now or pay later, and I would rather know what we are getting ourselves into sooner rather than later.

I think my biggest gripe with the tax rebate checks is that I honestly don’t think they will matter. They definitely will not accomplish what Bush wants them to accomplish which is to stimulate spending and jump start the economy. Here is the thing. A lot of Americans are just struggling with the basics. Food and gas prices are getting to the point of ridiculous, and $600 isn’t what it used to be. For most people, that is just a few weeks of food and gas, and I think most people are going to spend their money this way.

Besides, it will just exacerbate what is going on in the economy. To pay for the tax rebate, the money has to come from somewhere. There is no such thing as a free lunch, the money comes from somewhere, and it comes from abroad, namely China and the Middle East. So what happens? The government is just going to borrow money for the rebate from these countries, and see the American consumer give it right back. The typical American consumer is going to spend it on something either made in China or the gas that comes from the Middle East. It’s a great deal, if you are one of these other countries.

I finally finished my taxes this year. I’m usually not a procrastinator, but this year it was really hard for me to get to them. Between the new job and traveling back and forth to Seattle, I just haven’t had a lot of free weekends to sit down and do my taxes.

So I finally did it and I got some money back. Unlike most people, this doesn’t excite me. It actually upsets me to some degree since the government held my money for most of the year and has graciously decided to give me back money they should have never had. This time of year also reminds me just how much in taxes I pay. It’s a lot. Since I am without kids and a house, I’m of course a second class citizen in the eyes of the government, so my deductions are few and far between. It’s one of the many reasons I hate our tax code. It’s a reason I would have considered voting for Huckabee despite the fact he is way too far right when it comes to social issues. I would love to see the fair tax go into place because there are so many problems with the current tax code.

I compare my experiences with California and Washington. I lived in California for 14 days this past year so I had to file a tax return. I lived in Washington for 351 days and didn’t have to do squat because Washington doesn’t have an income tax. I didn’t have to worry about deductions, credits, or an Alternative Minimum Tax. I just blissfully ignored the fact that I lived in Washington when tax time came around.

Taxing income is just so inherently difficult. So many different definitions of what is and what is not income. It is ludicrous to me that my girlfriend, who received some land from her mother this year, actually has to hire someone to look into the tax implications of receiving said gift. All we need are property, customs, and a retail sales tax. Nice and simple and something that would greatly simplify the tax code. It would broaden the base, simplify everyone’s life, and in fact probably cost people less in taxes than any alternative. Throw in the fact that you would be able to almost eliminate the IRS, tax audits, and an entire industry that is created just for compliance to the income tax code, and you have icing to go on top of that cake.

Taxing income is also pretty damn sneaky. Don’t believe me? Why do you think people get excited about getting tax returns. The government has trained people to think that you are getting something good. People just don’t realize how much the government is taking from them throughout the year. That’s why, when they get their rebate check, they are so excited. How sick is it that the government took this money from you, interest free, and then returned a small portion of it back to you because they took to much, and people feel excited about this.

From the obvious files, Treasury Secretary Paulson declared that  we have to do something to fix social security.  Not sure where he has been the last decade or so when it became pretty obvious that we had a mounting problem.

Clearly we can’t sustain the current path.  Either taxes need to be raised (they are already pretty high) or benefits need to be reduced.    Now, we all know how I feel about taxes, so I’m clearly not in favor of that.  I also see how it would be unfair to reduce benefits to those already retired or near retirement.  To me, the answer seems pretty simple.  Start promising less to people like myself and raise the retirement age.  If people near retirement need to work a little bit longer, so be it.  Social Security was never meant to fund people 1/3 of their life.

You know what the scary thing is?  I’m not sure if people fully realize the full extent of the problem.  Read the article.  It talks about how Social Security will start running a deficit in 2017 and go bankrupt in 2041.  What is not talked about is the fact that what happens in 2017 when the government has to start drawing from the “trust fund”.  The fund is nothing but government issued bonds.   This causes a double whammy.  When they come due, what do you think happens?  The government needs to somehow turn these bonds into actual money.  How do they do that?

The old trick of issuing bonds won’t work, can’t pay bonds with bonds.  So the government now has three horrible choices.

1. Cut spending somewhere else
2. Raise taxes yet again
3. Print money causing massive inflation

Considering how hard it is for the government to do either of the first two now when the pain would be relatively minor I have a bad feeling that the government will do #3.  So not only will I not get any benefit from Social Security, not only will I have to pay for everybody else’s benefit, but all the money that I have saved for myself will become worth a lot less.  Sounds like a great future.

A while ago I took a position in some Natural Gas drillers.  Specifically Grey Wolf and Nabors.  I never really planned on owning them long term.  I just took positions because I thought I wanted a few different energy plays and so I branched out into an area I wasn’t totally comfortable with (mistake #1).

I actually did OK on these at first, and saw some good gains.  As I was in this for a trade, I should have gotten out, but I didn’t.  Soon after, the price of Natural gas spiked down and never recovered.  Since I didn’t have a lot of money invested in either position, I didn’t really worry about it.   I figured that it was OK and that it would eventually come back.  So I held.  Held like a chump.

I should have just gotten out of the position when it reversed.  I made a classic mistake that so many of us make; I let a trade become an investment.  I held on to the position WAY too long in the hopes that it would eventually come back.  Hope, it’s the one case where it really isn’t a very good thing to had.  I kept telling myself that energy was a great story and it would continue to be so (it is, but this wasn’t the way I should have or wanted to play it).  I kept coming up with excuses to keep the stock.  But that was unnecessary.  It was a trade.  Trades don’t have reasons, only investments do.

I finally got out of the positions this week.  I did it to take the capital loss and offset some capital gains I have but it should have never come to this.

Is it worth it to move to California? I’m in California now, ready to start my new job on Monday. Pretty excited about it. One of the things I struggled with was whether or not to leave Seattle and come back to California. I obviously made the decision to do it but how did I come to that conclusion? Is it really worth it?

Taxes

I’m going to start with this one because taxes is one of my favorite topics. According to one survey, California and Washington state have a tax burden of 11.5% and 11.1% respectively. This is a virtual wash. However, they go about how they collect their taxes very differently. California income tax is pretty high reaching 9.3% at the top,They also have a pretty high sales tax which can reach upwards of 8.75%. California also has fuel tax ,property tax, and a cigarette tax.

Washington also has a pretty high tax burden, but structures it very differently. Washington has NO income tax. Seattle has a sales tax of 8.8% and a Restaurant tax of 9.3%. This is of course higher than in most places in CA. They too have a property tax, and derive 30% of all revenue this way. They have a fuel tax, but it is lower than California’s. They too have a Cigarette tax which is MUCH higher than in California. I don’t smoke, so this doesn’t affect me.

In the end, most of the taxes are a wash. BUT the fact that I don’t smoke, don’t own property, I earn a high income, and I don’t spend very much, Washington is the clear winner.I estimate that I probably pay about 5% more in total taxes in California than I do in Washington. Winner: Washington

Housing

I rent. So I’ll start there.

This really depends on where you live in each area. So for sake of comparison I will use the two places I have lived, Pasadena and Redmond. Pasadena is much more “urban” which means that rents are going to be slightly more. When I left Redmond, they were about to raise the rent on my apartment to $1300 for a one bedroom apartment that was a little over 700 sq. feet. That was probably a little higher than the average, but it was close. So I would say market rate for this place was right around $1200. A similar place in Pasadena right now would probably be about $1400 right now. However, if you were to live in say Santa Clarita, a city closer to the type of town Redmond is, rents would probably be about the same.

Buying is a different matter. Despite the fact that housing prices are coming down in LA and are staying relatively flat in Seattle, buying a house is still more expensive in LA than it is in Seattle. I would estimate that buying in LA is still probably about 15-20% more expensive right now. But I expect this to correct itself in the coming year. Winner: Washington

Weather

As I type this, it is about 68 degrees in L.A right now and is very sunny. It is 43 degrees in Redmond and cloudy. I’m actually not a person who is affected that greatly by weather, but having left it and come back, I can say that it does make a difference in more ways than is obvious. First off, I don’t have to plan around weather. In Seattle, I often have to change my plans or not make them at all because of the rain or cold. I have found myself reluctant to leave the house because it was so cold.

If you are a guy, a side benefit of the nice weather are the short skirts. I also contend, that the women are just better looking in CA than in other parts of the country. Sure, it may be fake, but what does it matter if you are only looking anyway

The one advantage Seattle has here is that it is not quite as hot in the Summer. There is a week where the heat might be really uncomfortable, where LA probably has about a month of that. But hey, isn’t that why they invented Air Conditioning?

This is one thing money just can’t buy. No matter how much money you throw at it, you aren’t going to be able to make it sunny or warm outside. Winner: California, by a lot

Cost of Living

I’ve already gone over housing, so I won’t factor that in here. A common thing you hear about living in California is that your salary will be adjusted because of the higher cost of living. I can tell you right now it’s a big lie. I am going to be making more money here than I was in Washington but that is because I’m taking a better job. I had similar offers and positions in Washington that I was considering, and I can tell you that the salaries can’t adjust for the fact that it is just plain more expensive to live in CA than in WA.

At my last job in CA, my company was acquired by a company based in Ohio. I was talking to the head of the CA operations who had moved from OH and we were talking about salaries. I asked him if he was interested in moving more of the engineering jobs from CA to OH to save on the salaries. He let me know that he wasn’t because, much to his surprise, the salaries weren’t all that different. In the end, CA loses because it is more expensive to live here but you won’t get compensated for it.

Other than that, goods cost the same. Food and other items are a push. Gas is slightly more expensive in CA by a couple of cents. Winner: Washington

Jobs

If you are looking for a tech job, California wins here hands down. Seattle tech jobs are dominated by Microsoft and Amazon. Google is also starting to make strides in the area. But if you decide, like I did, that you don’t want to work for one of these firms, you are going to be out of luck. You could take a tech job in a company like Boeing, Washington Mutual or Starbucks but if you are like me you want to work for a tech company, not do tech work at a company.

The Southern California job market is just much more diverse. No one employer dominates the area. This hold true outside the tech industry as well. If you are looking for jobs in Entertainment, defense, finance, bio-tech, or any number of other industries you will have better luck here. If you are like me, and your partner is not in the tech industry, this becomes a crucial fact because your partner has to be able to find a job too. Winner: California

Things To Do

This is barely even worth talking about. Southern California just has more to do. Almost anything you can find in Seattle, you can find in Southern California, but the reverse is just not true. Seattle has some great outdoor activities, but so does California, and in California they are accessible year round. California has better arts and entertainment, museums, beaches, shopping, restaurants and attractions. Winner: California

Traffic

However much Seattlites like to complain about the traffic, California is worse. If you don’t like traffic, if it grates on your nerves, then LA might not be the place for you. I try to live close to work to minimize this effect, but the fact remains. Traffic is a bitch in L.A. Winner: Washington

Bottom Line

There can be many factors which way in on your decision to move. The above are mine. I also have family in the L.A. area which is a factor. I also grew up with the smog, so it doesn’t bother me at all. I figure it is probably about 8%-10% more expensive to live in California than Seattle. If you make six-figures like I do, that can be more than $10,000. For that money, you get the nicer weather, more things to do, more job choices, and of course, the short skirts.

What’s that worth to you?