Double Journey

I recently got a Macbook Pro for use at work.  I’m not sure when I became such an Apple user (I have an iPhone and an iPad) but I now have the trifecta of Apple products.  This marks my first OS X computer.  I’ve been a user of plenty of other operating systems such as OS/2, Solaris, Linux, and Windows.  I did use a Macintosh SE way back in the day.  But I have not used any modern Apple OS so I was interested how it would turn out.

To sum it up, I’m completely unimpressed.  I really went in with an open mind.  In fact, I really wanted to like it since I like my iPhone and everyone I know who uses Macs love it.  They love it so much they won’t stop talking about it (which bugs me a little actually).  As someone who greatly values easy to use products and products which are designed with the customer in mind, I was hoping that this Apple product would really open my eyes to how computing should be done.  It hasn’t.   Even more disappointing is that I have one of the nicer Macbook Pros.  I got the one with an Intel i7 processor, upgraded HD, and upgraded Video Card.  This thing should be rocking.

Now one thing I will say is that I feel I might feel differently if I had not used Windows 7.  Compared to Windows XP, the Windows version most people are familiar with, I think OS X blows that out of the water.  If OS X was like this 5 years ago when XP was really your only choice than I can understand the love.  Even compared to Vista it is superior although I never hated Vista as much as others.  But compared to Windows 7 I’m just not sure the Apple “simplicity” edge is really there anymore.  Here is how it breaks down for me.

Stability - This is the one thing I was really interested in seeing.  Apple users swear that Macs never crash and make fun of Windows users who experience the Blue Screen of Death.  Well I am pretty sure all those people need to shut up.  Since the launch of Windows 7 I rarely, if ever see the BSOD.  It may have happened over the last year but I honestly don’t remember having any issues since Windows 7 went RTM and I’m a pretty heavy computer user so you would think I would run into it.  Within the first two days of having my Macbook Pro the thing crashed three times.  A week later, I had it freeze three times in a row on me in one hour.  This is not an exaggeration.  I called over the Mac lovers in my group to show them because they didn’t believe me.  I let the computer sit for 30 minutes untouched and it sat their frozen.  The mouse would move but otherwise nothing was responding.  The only solution was a hard reboot.  Just yesterday, after giving a presentation, I unplugged the Mac from the projector and then the screen went dark and stayed dark.  Completely unresponsive.  At least with the BSOD, you know something is wrong.  My Mac just decides to die on you with no indication that there is actually anything wrong.

Business Software -  If you work in an office that is on Exchange and uses Outlook, forget the Mac.  I’m an Outlook power user.  As someone in management, my day consists of checking e-mail and going to meetings.  All things that  I depend very heavily on Outlook for.  There is no real substitute on the Mac.  Entourage,  the Mac Office equivalent of Outlook is a complete joke.  I could write a whole post on why it is inadequate but it would probably just upset me.  If you use the other Office products like Excel, Word, and Powerpoint don’t fool yourself into thinking that Office on the Mac is like Office on Windows.  Yes Microsoft makes both products but that doesn’t mean they are the same product.  They really aren’t.

 Lack of Software in General - There are some basic things I need to be able to do on my computer and there are programs I have found on Windows to do them.  Similar products aren’t available on the Mac.  It took me a while to find DB client program which would connect to all the various Database servers I needed to connect to.   I had several free versions to choose from on Windows but could only find one which I had to pay money for on the Mac.  The same can be said for photo editing.  Maybe I’m biased because I like Rick’s Paint.net program but it really upset me that I found it difficult to edit simple pictures.  Those who like iPhoto are crazy.  More on that later.

“Simplicity” - The mac is supposed to be easy to use right? I wanted to edit a picture and then save it.  I opened the photo in iPhoto and tried to save it.  Was unsuccessful. Could not for the life of me figure out why the original photo, which I wanted to save over, had not changed.  I called over 4 engineers to my desk to figure this out.  3 of them are Mac users.  None of them could figure it out either.  How on earth is that simple?  Also, why is it that most of the useful commands take pressing 3 keys to do.  Ever try to take a screenshot on a Mac.  I have to hit three keys.  That is if I can remember which three.  One button on a PC.  And I don’t care what anyone says.  A mouse with only one button is not easier to use.

Hot Hot Hot -  This is the hottest running laptop I have ever had.  Seriously, if it were sitting on lap during any serious computation, it would burn me.

The Little Things -Here are a bunch of other things that just annoy me

•  No easy way to lock the screen.
• Plugged in a Flash drive.  Didn’t recognize it and didn’t tell me it even attempted.
• I really like the Windows 7 feature of dragging windows to various locations to change size and shape.  No such thing in the Mac.
• Windows are very easily lost behind one another.
• Closing a window doesn’t actually close the program.
• Force quit is not as effective as good ol’ ctrl-alt-delete.

While the overall tone of the tone of this post may seem negative I’m not actually that down on the computer.  It is certainly nice but it isn’t the life changing thing I was expecting.  It’s like that over-hyped movie everyone talks about.  Ever notice how the movies everybody raves about are never as good as you thought.  I think the same thing happened here.  I like the computer, it is a solid performer, but I was just expecting a little more.

Ok, so I got an iPad.  I didn’t actually get one myself.  Since I work for a web company, and the iPad is supposed to change the way we use the web, I figured I would order one for my group to see what the hype was about.   I ordered the Wi-Fi only version, since I didn’t plan on walking around town with the thing.  I ordered 32GB version, just one step up from the base version, for $599.  I posted previously about the iPad in my non-iPad post but now that I actually have iPad in hand, here are my thoughts.

It’s smaller than I thought it would be (that’s what she said).

It is heavier than I thought and this makes it less useful.  It is not comfortable to hold the device in one hand for very long.  Since this is going to be used by most as an e-reader, this makes the device impractical for its main use.   1.5 lbs. may not seem like very much, but try holding that up in the air with one had for more than five minutes.The screen is as gorgeous as people says it is.  OK, maybe it isn’t that beautiful.

The web browser is not a full browser, or at least people aren’t treating it that way.  I use Evernote to take notes down and I wanted to copy a URL for me to read later.  Safari refused to let me use Evernote through the web.  It kept insisting I download the app which I didn’t want to do.

The web browser seems to adjust the page to fit the screen.  However it can do this randomly.  I will be reading a page every once in a while and it will change the page.  Very annoying. This is not the same as the screen rotating randomly.  That is a different problem.

The screen can rotate wildly at times.  While it has a screen rotation lock, I don’t always have it enabled and thus the screen is likely to just rotate.

Streaming Netflix movies look pretty good.  I’m actually kind of impressed with this app and it is very easily the best app on the iPad.

The lack of any really good free apps is disappointing.  This is in direct contrast to the iPhone where I have found very many useful free apps.  I actually have only bought a handful of apps on the iPhone and I find it more useful than I could ever want.  The can’t say the same thing about the iPad.

The lack of Flash support is annoying.  This has been talked about to death but I was one of those who didn’t think this really mattered until I actually needed it.  I wanted to watch the masters over the web and couldn’t because all the video is in flash.  My vet told me to go watch a video on Youtube and of course, I couldn’t.

The battery life is probably better than advertised.  The device can go all day even with some heavy use. 

Final Verdict:

I’ve used the iPad for over a week now and I think it is a nice little device but would hold off buying one for myself.   I’m not sure it is worth the $500 bucks it takes to get it and I’m not sure it is as “magical” and “revolutionary” as Apple is trying to make it out to be.   It is definitely less useful than a laptop, less convenient than a smart phone, but it does serve nicely as a “niche” product.  I just don’t think niche products are worth $500.The device is at its best doing light browsing sitting on the couch.   Since it is always on, it is very convenient to grab it to look something up quickly.  My wife particularly likes to use it to browse through various shopping websites.  She thinks it is very convenient because it is a good size for her and doesn’t get hot like a laptop would on her lap.

Some people will love the device just because it is new, different, and of course, it is Apple.  But for those of you who hold no such loyalty I think it is best to wait on getting an iPad.  Several other hardware manufacturers like HP, Sony, and reportedly Google are getting ready to launch their own tablet devices.  They are bound to be cheaper since you won’t be paying the Apple premium.  Since I have found the apps for the iPad less compelling Apple won’t have this advantage over its competitors.  So as long as the competition make a solid web browsing device, then I think it best to take a wait and see approach.

I feel kind of left out not talking about the iPad when it seems like it is the only thing every other news source in the world is talking about. But since I don’t have an iPad right now, I really have nothing to talk about. I actually meant to swing by the local Apple store today to check it out but I’ve been sidelined with a cold the last few days. I’m feeling so left out I was considering just holding my iPhone really really close to my face figuring it wouldn’t be much different than actually having an iPad in the first place.

To be fair, I actually have an iPad on order. It is supposed to arrive in the next week or so. However, I’m not one of those early adopters that is Apple crazy. I ordered one because it has relevance to my work and so I wanted to have first hand experience using this device who others seem to think will save the world. My expectations are a little more modest. Now, I think the iPhone is great. It is very useful to me and I’m a proud owner. I’ve used Android based devices, both the Nexus One and the Motorola Droid, and have to say the iPhone wins by nose. I’ve been meaning to put up a comparison but like much of my blogging efforts these days I just haven’t gotten around to it.

I’m sure the iPad will be a fantastic device. But let’s get real here for a second. Apple did not invent the tablet. The tablet has been around for quite a while and it has never caught on. Maybe Apple has improved upon the idea. I’m willing to keep an open mind. But as someone who has used tablets in the past and found them a little wanting, I’m somewhat skeptical about it. I guess we will have to wait and see until I actually have one in hand.

And I would sell.  Now full disclosure time.  I own Microsoft stock, stock I received while employed there.  Microsoft came out and beat their estimates.  More importantly, they gave good guidance as opposed to Apple who came out with good earnings and less than optimistic outlooks.

While I’m going to hold on to Microsoft (I rarely make moves in my long term portfolio) my recommendation is to sell.  You see, I have VERY little faith in this company long term.  They are losing talent left and right.   Most of the top developers I worked with have already left the company or are planning to leave.  Most of them are heading over to Google.

Companies like Microsoft are very dependent on their talent and the talent just isn’t going to Microsoft anymore.  Those that are still behind are quickly seeing that there are better opportunities elsewhere.  I still have to make my post about why I left Microsoft.  I’ll follow up with that one shortly.

Almost time to re-enter the market. The market opened sharply down and recovered after the Fed announced a 3/4 point rate cut.  One quick comment on that.  Not sure what type of house that my former professor is running.  I would prefer to see the fed leading the way rather than reacting to every little thing (OK a 500 point drop isn’t little) that happens.

I still think that the market is flat to down over the next few weeks if not month.  But it is impossible to pick the bottom of a market.  If you can take the long term pain, you should start thinking about putting your money back into the market.  Financial stocks are going to be the first to recover, but they might still be pretty scary here.  I still like my MO and I really want to by Home Depot, but I’m holding off for now.  Bottoms take a long time to form.  In 2000, it took months before we actually reached bottom even though there were several sharp drops.

There is still weakness however.  Apple is touching the 130’s in after hour trading.  They had a good quarter, but their outlook was grim.  That is going to be the theme for a lot of companies.  Good earnings, grim outlooks.  Thank god I passed on it at 195.  Tech is going to be a hard place to be.

This week at Mac World, Steve Jobs announced the company’s latest product, the Macbook Air. I have to admit, it is pretty cool. I’m actually in the market for a new laptop and I’m leaning toward getting a mac (despite my dark Microsoft days). In case you haven’t heard yet, here is a video showing the Macbook Air.



Now the problem is that it starts around $1800 and goes up from there all the way up to $3000. It’s a little bit more than I want to spend.On a related note, boy am I glad I didn’t buy Apple when I was looking at it.The stock looked poised for weakness there and boy was I right. Rick urged me to buy at $195, but I resisted. The stock closed just under $160 today, down 6%, I would have taken a huge haircut on that trade (although I would have gotten out way before now) Maybe I should ask Rick for advice, and then do the exact opposite. I might make my double then! Actually, my advice would be to short Apple at this point. The market is looking ugly, and the former leaders like Apple are going to get whacked. Short the market as a whole (sds) or short some of the stocks that have been great like Apple or Monsanto.

Despite Rick’s urging, I’m probably not going to buy Apple today. Although I really want to get into the market, this isn’t the right stock to do it. There are many reasons I like Apple in the short term, but the price action on the stock just isn’t shaping up. Here is the one month chart on Apple.

Now look at the last five trading days. See that nice uptrend? That in itself doesn’t scare me. Most people don’t want to chase a stock that has gone up like Apple, and for the most part I agree. But sometimes it makes sense if a stock is taking off, which I think Apple has the potential to do. But look at the last candlestick. You see how it is red? You see how narrow the candlestick is? you see how it is hovering right near the bottom of the price action today? This is a perfect Gravestone Doji setup.

For those not versed in technical analysis, think of it this way. You had a great run up in the stock. Today, the stock tried to go higher, which is why you have the point sticking up. but toward the end of the day, the bears took over and started selling the stock. It ended up slightly lower (there is still about an hour left in the trading day so this could reverse). This is generally a weak signal, but still significant. What makes this sign stronger is the fact that the market overall is up today, so Apple is looking weak here. Confirmation will come tomorrow if there is another sell off in the stock. I think Apple could break 200, but I think it could also fall down to support at the 170 level.

OK, I promised I would do a trade this week, and I didn’t. My bad. I’m in the middle of a move, and for those of you who have moved across country before, you know what a huge pain in the butt it can be.

I was planning on trading Activision this week. I had researched it last weekend, and was ready to pounce on it Monday or Tuesday. Then of course they announced the Vivendi deal, and that killed any trade I could do.

So now I’m looking for my next story that will be successful. I was carefully watching Apple today. It looked good while the rest of the market was kind of flat. It found some resistance as it met its 52-week high but I like the price action it can have between now, Christmas, and Mac World. May try and get into it on Monday, we will see how things turn out. The other name I’m closely watching is Potash. They make fertilizer. Not the most exciting thing in the world, but right now there is a global growth story happening in the farming industry and this company looks poised to take full advantage of it. I’ll have to examine their charts this weekend, and I’ll try and make a call on it before I head down to California at the end of the week.

Everyone have a great weekend. There will probably be some significant changes on this site over the weekend, so watch out for them!